ATA Economist: Fewer Trucks, Not More Freight, Is Driving Rate Recovery

Bob Costello, chief economist of the American Trucking Associations, told the ATA Management Conference and Exhibition in Charlotte, North Carolina, that the current freight recovery is unlike any previous cycle. He described it as "all supply driven."

Truckload volumes have been essentially flat through August after declining in 2025. They remain about 8.6 percent below the 2022 peak. Costello noted that manufacturing in aerospace, computer equipment, and electrical equipment is growing, and data center construction is strong, but those sectors represent only about 10 percent of total manufacturing output. With a 30-year fixed mortgage running around 7.5 percent, housing-related freight has not rebounded.

He described the capacity reduction in two phases. The first began with the post-pandemic freight recession. Volumes and rates fell while operating costs kept climbing. He compared an index built from ATRI operating-cost data with ATA revenue-per-mile data, excluding fuel and fuel surcharges. Revenue per mile dropped while costs rose, and the gap widened over time.

Driver pay was a persistent pressure. Using Labor Department data for production and nonsupervisory employees in trucking, Costello reported average hourly earnings up nearly 51 percent from 2019. Weekly earnings were about 45 percent higher than in 2019. He described the capacity loss as a slow, gradual thinning of carriers over time.

The second phase, Costello said, began last year with the new administration's increased enforcement. He cited enforcement against B-1 visa drivers used for domestic freight, which he said had been providing extra capacity outside normal channels. He also pointed to enforcement of English language proficiency rules, ELD fraud, chameleon carriers, and CDL mills as factors pulling capacity out of the market.

High diesel prices added further pressure. Fuel surcharges could not immediately offset rising pump prices, so carriers absorbed the gap. The effect is visible in truckload revenue per mile, spot rates, and less-than-truckload revenue per ton, all of which are climbing.

Costello does not expect a recession or a reversal of enforcement efforts, even after the midterm elections. He noted that Class 8 tractor sales are expected to rise about 14 percent this year but will remain below 2024 levels, and that most purchases are replacement demand after years of extended trade cycles.

Source: Heavy Duty Trucking — https://www.truckinginfo.com/news/why-this-trucking-recovery-is-different